Centre for Geo Political Studies

| Archive | Login  |

 

  | HOME | ARTICLES BY CGPS  |WEEKLY REVIEW | RESEARCH | VIDEOS | OPINION | MEMBERSHIP | ABOUT US|
 

Why Sanctions Won’t Stop North Korea
  |Mon, 14 March 2016 15:20|Deplomacy| Page Views : 3538



  Look to Libya in 2011 to see what Pyongyang’s elites have long understood.

It was Libya in 2011 – the uprising against Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and the subsequent shocking scenes of a bloodied dictator reduced to waiting on his fate in a dusty street just west of Sirte – that reinforced North Korea’s long-held belief that the only way to truly deter an outside attack would be to maintain and develop its own nuclear weapons program.

Indeed, in March 2011, a North Korean spokesperson announced to the world the lessons that Kim’s regime had learned. “It has been shown to the corners of the earth that Libya’s giving up its nuclear arms….was used as an invasion tactic to disarm the country by sugar-coating it with words like ‘the guaranteeing of security’ and the ‘bettering of relations.’ Having one’s own strength,” the official continued, “was the only way to keep the peace.”

Whether one is to agree with the international intervention in Libya or not, it is true that Gaddafi, the only ever international leader to give up his nuclear weapons program, was betrayed. He had renounced his weapons program, cooperated on Lockerbie, and handed over to the West its files on al-Qaeda and the IRA. Political, economic and cultural relations had developed but when the rebel-led uprising arose, a Western military coalition provided the support to remove him.

This, together with the invasion of Iraq over a decade previously, forged a deep and very genuine suspicion of the West among the North Korean elite. The DPRK has survived for so long, against all odds, far outliving other repressive states, largely because of the astute Machiavellian brilliance of its political strategy.

It knows that in order to increase the likelihood of self-survival, it needs a nuclear weapons program, being astutely aware that a nuclear-backed state is never going to be invaded by an outside power because the risks would be too great. For many years now, the sole raison d’être of North Korea has been the self-preservation of the ruling family and the surrounding elites, ahead of any attempt to genuinely improve its economy or reduce the shocking levels of daily poverty found across the country.

Almost all actions taken at the domestic and diplomatic level have been aimed at achieving the overall objective of self-preservation. North Korea, therefore, will absorb the pain of sanctions, because from its perspective disbanding its weapons program is akin to suicide. While it may lose out on luxury goods and Kim Jong-un may struggle to gain access to his favorite Swiss emmental cheese, from its view this is a small price in avoiding the fate of Gaddafi.

While the latest round of sanctions are deep, placing bans on luxury goods and all transfers of small arms and light weapons as well as introducing mandatory inspections on cargo, they are by no means so radical that they will force the North Korean state to consider abandoning it weapons program. The DPRK is the “sanctions state,” battle-hardened and immune to them, arguably more so than any other state globally, with differing levels of sanctions placed upon it for almost three decades. Even in North Korea’s official response it stated “it is a serious miscalculation to think that sanctions would work on the DPRK.”

Sanctions of course also depend on Chinese willingness to enforce them for a sustained period of time. This is by no means guaranteed – China has been notoriously lax in previous bouts of sanctions aimed at making life difficult for the North Korean regime. Chinese and North Korean elites are well versed in moving money around through the black economy and testimony from local business leaders suggests that the sanctions are not likely to cause serious damage or fundamentally change business dealings.

In fact, sanctions could do the opposite of what U.S. President Barack Obama intended when he said “they are aimed at halting Pyongyang’s efforts to advance its weapons of mass destruction programs.” Instead, the sanctions may well help shore up domestic support for Kim Jong-un by playing into the very successful propagandized narrative that outside powers are out to get North Korea. Indeed, an interview by the Associated Press with Pyongyang residents neatly summarized this, with Song Hyo-il a local citizen asserting, “No kind of sanctions will ever work on us, because we’ve lived under U.S. sanctions for more than half a century.”

One of Kim Jong-un’s political survival tools is his ability to portray himself as the defiant protector of the nation’s security. He does this through highly effective propaganda, creating a siege mentality about the outside world’s hostile intentions towards it. Highlighting South Korea’s “cultural abandonment,” framing it as a puppet of the United States, Pyongyang can use sanctions as yet another demonstration that the only way North Korea can stay strong and independent is by trusting the leadership. Fail to do that, the narrative goes, and North Korea will face destruction by a world which is out to destroy them and devalue its “pure culture.”

Ultimately, all of the international sanctions and rhetoric doesn’t change the fact that the world is far more reluctant to engage in conflict with a nuclear armed North Korea, than it was with a non-nuclear armed Libya. The gruesome end to Gaddafi’s rule has likely confirmed what Kim Jong-il and now Kim Jong-un have long been understood: A dictator who wants to hold on to power should also hold onto his nuclear weapons. While the sanctions may hurt North Korea economically, and even slow the rate of nuclear proliferation, they will not bring real change to North Korea.

By Jack Hands – The Diplomat


 Comments

 Comments

Name
Email
Comments

                                     

             

 
Most Popular In News
Fearured
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Holds Talks in Bangladesh Over Rohingya Crisis (59693)

ASEAN and the EEU: Close to Free Trade Zone? (1150)

Afghanistan Peace Process and its Implications to the Region (1002)

A New High for U.S.-China Military Ties (886)

India Sends Stealth Warships to South China Sea (1272)

Al-Qaeda wants to execute Microsoft founder Bill Gates to 'damage US economy' (735)

Monsanto, Dow, Syngenta: rush for mega-mergers puts food security at risk (3379)

'No Rohingya': Behind the US Embassy Protest in Myanmar (970)

Food security fears resurface in Asian as nations face rice shortage due to drought (47596)

GCC-US Summit: Obama’s Failed Trip To Saudi Arabia (652)

Dharamsala Conference: Message To China And Pakistan (725)

A Vision of Reform in Saudi Arabia (913)

The South China Sea: Vietnam's Limited Diplomatic Options (750)

In Ukraine, the Cycle of Uncertainty Churns On (881)

Pakistan's Army Seeks Greater Authority Over China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Administration (47550)

Thailand’s Junta Digs In (718)

The world may have too much food (699)

After Lahore: The Truth About Terrorism and Pakistan (1218)

Seven projects around the world that protect soil (747)

Breaking the Silence: Indonesia Vs. China in the Natuna Islands (832)

Isis's backup plan to retreat to Libya is falling apart (753)

Why President Obama Won’t Meet With Fidel Castro (1220)

Making Sense of Pakistan’s Intelligence Tip-off to India (727)

Deterring China: US Army to Stockpile Equipment in Cambodia and Vietnam (2069)

74 PERCENT OF POOR PEOPLE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY LAND DEGRADATION (699)

Russia-China: The West’s Dual Challenge (775)

Why Sanctions Won’t Stop North Korea (3538)

The Pacific Nuclear Test Cases (680)

Will the US Station Long-Range Heavy Bombers in Australia? (706)

Technology can help resolve South Asia’s fishing wars (947)

Europe to become an energy battlefield between Russia and the US (822)

How Israel Navigated through the Hurricane of the Syrian Civil War (699)

Russia and Turkey, on the slippery slope to direct confrontation (669)

Freshwater biodiversity has positive impact on global food security (2749)

The Syrian Cauldron Boils Over (854)

US-China Relations: In the Shadow of Conspiracy Theories (693)

The Islamic State Threat Is Real in Pakistan (2853)

Egypt's 'Security Threat': Churches (842)

Improved irrigation backed to halve food gap (808)

Should Radical Islamists Be Segregated in Prison? (660)

World hunger: what are the most undernourished countries? (732)

Turkey and Saudi Arabia: to fight or to flight? (870)

International responses to ISIS (949)

Message to Putin as U.S. ups NATO ante in Eastern Europe (3281)

David Cameron scrambles to beef up puny EU deal (755)

Is India Prepared to Prevent Sea-Borne Terrorist Infiltration? (985)

Pakistan Will Provide 'Special Force' to Defend Chinese Investments (658)

China Rejects Latest US FONOP in the South China Sea (739)

What Does 2016 Hold for China-US Relations in Cyberspace? (745)

Now our troops face being hounded in court by the TALIBAN: Iraq witch-hunt lawyers set sights on Afghan claims (752)

No Prosperity for Iran after Nuclear Deal (753)

Related Topics
.....
 
© by 2015 www.cgpscolombo.com  | Home | Archives  |  Contact Us |